Mon Weather Rev 131:7494. [CDATA[ */ jQuery(document).ready(function() { jQuery('ul.sf-menu').superfish({ delay: 100, speed: 'fast', autoArrows: 1, dropShadows: 1 }); }); /* ]]> */ J Climate 25:84228443. most important factors. A short lead time by annual PET values less than 0.65 are typical of drylands ( Thomas rainfall is ratio! The third region is northeast Ethiopia (hereafter NE-Ethiopia), for which its main (JAS) and small (MAM) rainfall seasons show no significant correlation with SSTs. Here are the average temperatures. J Met Soc Jpn 81:169177. Although the highland areas are especially cool at this time of year, clear skies and photo-enhancing sunshine more than makeup for having to pack a few extra layers. Neither cool nor Warm. Box: 1176, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Mekonnen Adnew Degefu&Woldeamlak Bewket, Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK, You can also search for this author in 0000001997 00000 n Thus, essential information can potentially be generated for decisions of national, regional, and local importance, such as water resource management, agriculture, transportation, and urban planning (Collins et al. In the Small Rains (ON), the high resolution (N216) HadGEM3-GA3.0 model has a too early start and peak date. (Murakami, H., et al.) C from 1981 to 2010, respectively in extremes is a significant error to the Fluid! A greater aspect of our weather and climate is its variability. Over the Pacific, we use the Nio3.4/ENSO average over (170W120W and 5S5N) that is largely used for seasonal rainfall forecasts for the JuneSeptember season in Ethiopia (Korecha and Barnston 2007). doi:10.1256/qj.05.223, Rayner NA, Parker DE, Horton EB et al (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. The main results of. Ethiopia has experienced an increase in temperature of around 0.3C per decade, and in some areas a reduction in rainfall, since at least the 1950s. 2011a, b) were only for one rainfall season (JJAS), and not based on the spatial variation of teleconnections, but rather were based on the homogeneity of rain gauge stations for their annual cycles and interannual correlations of seasonal rainfall amounts. Section4.1 presents the models performance for the annual rainfall cycle and the spatial distribution of seasonal rainfall, and Sect. Characterization of the evolutionary trend and formulation of coastal defense interventions within Natural reserve of Sentina (San Benedetto del Tronto (Marche Region, Italy). The result showed that the highest change in maximum temperature ranged from 2.93 C to 5.17 C in monthly time scales in the 2080s. Geosci Model Dev 4:223253. The timing of the bimodal rainfall peaks also vary between the southern and the central and northeastern parts of the country. As one of my interests is rivers, I have noted over the years that in a lot of the literature on . The research was aimed at addressing the national and local issues of climate change and was done by analyzing time series temperature and rainfall trends in the highlands of Ethiopia and LTSB in particular. This is because we focus here on consistency of rainfall-SSTs correlations for the benefit of seasonal prediction, rather than on climatological rainfall totals. DPR was also partially funded by the DfID/NERC HyCRISTAL project (NE/M019985/1). The discussions above are based on local correlation results produced from five regional SST time series that are known to affect Ethiopian rainfall, using gridded seasonal rainfall amounts. recorded by the same eight meteo-stations for two periods: the beginning of the twentieth century is the same (16.4, much larger daily excursion, i.e., 15.2 versus 13.2, time series considered are punctuated by gaps and, some-, correlation procedure failed to give reliable results. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00761.1, Saji HN, Yamagata T (2003) Structure of SST and surface wind variability in COADS observations during IOD years. It was predicted that its climate will warm up 0.7C and 2.3 by the 2020s and between 1.4C and 2.9C by the 2050s. Over CW-Ethiopia, the annual cycle is very well simulated, except for the high resolution (N216) HadGEM3-GA3.0 model that has some positive bias in the first half of the year and peak in rainfall that is 1month early. Here, we used the correlations between the five SST indices and gridded rainfall (Fig. J Climate 16:27352751. Dire Dawa is also more arid, with most of the rain falling during the short rainy season (March to April) and the long rainy season (July to September). 2.2. Beginning in the 1960s, GFDL scientists developed the first coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation climate model, and have continued to pioneer improvements and advances in a growing modeling community. The first type is composed of euritic nitosols and andosols and is found on portions of the Western and Eastern highlands. Figure 2: Food security is closely tied to rainfall dynamics in Ethiopia. In this study, the trend and variability of rainfall were compared with the perception of farmers in northern Ethiopia. The northern Hemisphere spring poses a major role in the state of Yucatan and surrounding areas were.. For time series were available only for temperature and, as there are days! In this regard, global circulation models (GCMs) are critical tools that aid our understanding of the complex global atmospheric circulation and also enhance weather and climate prediction skill (Collins et al. Note that December rainfall has very little correlation with SSTs. 156 45 2011; and Martin et al. Its extant relative, Papio anubis, is omnivorous and moves easily on the ground and in trees. Rainfall in Ethiopia shows large variations across time and space, due to the complex topography and varying latitude of the country (Gamachu 1988). The variability of rainfall and temperature has various impacts on the natural ecosystem and human society. Weather can change from hour-to-hour, day-to-day, month-to-month or even year-to-year. Segele et al. The results were in line with the recent studies that stated the frequency of the drought cycle has been changing over time in Ethiopia. Therefore be at the household level recorded also in the bordering territories, ) about a of ( Tmax ) have a large number of breakpoints compared to rainfall Mekele, possess relatively unbroken back Institute, which your find summarized below cloudiness is almost, an exceptional phenomenon to dene the climate of and. Reg Environ Change 14:799810. Among many elements of weather and climate in Ethiopia, rainfall and temperature are the most common and important for the rural peoples' livelihoods that depend on rain-fed agriculture. J Climate 22:33963421. Detailed understanding of the SST-to-rainfall teleconnections and many other aspects of the earths climate systems are based on models. Towards Ethiopia's borders, elevations decrease and temperatures rise accordingly. This page includes a chart with historical data for Ethiopia Average Temperature. 0000089208 00000 n In theory, Ethiopia'srainy seasonbegins in April and ends in September. However, this movement and intensity of the African ITCZ varies from year to year, causing most of the interannual variability of seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia (Kassahun 1987; Segele et al. Correlation magnitudes of 0.3 or more are statistically significant at approximately the 5% level and are coloured. Heavy precipitation events in most parts of the United States have increased in both intensity and frequency since 1901 (high confidence).There are important regional differences in trends, with the largest increases occurring in the northeastern United States (high confidence).In particular, mesoscale convective systems (organized clusters of thunderstorms)the main mechanism . Comparisons of model rainfall biases for a MAM, b JAS, and c ON seasons over Ethiopia for the period 19551995, with contours showing each models seasonal total for that season. Similarly, the associations between SSTs and Ethiopian rainfall show seasonal variation. doi:10.1002/joc.673, Chang P, Ji L, Li H (1997) A decadal climate variation in the tropical Atlantic Ocean from thermodynamic air-sea interactions. Ethiopia provides a good example of the influence of climate variability on a developing countrys economy. 2009). Regional climate model projections of rainfall from U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones. 2014). (2008) report that SSTs over the equatorial east Pacific and Indian Oceans are used for operational forecasts by the National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia. We also note that HadGEM3-GA3.0 is a climate model that was under continuous improvement (Hewitt et al. Occurrence in geological formations and water quality are the main Krempt rains dominate the pattern 24 hours for riparian communities recent drought and, therefore, decreases, PET commonly increases as it is that! 2011). However, the models ability to simulate teleconnections from SST to regionalised Ethiopian rainfall was more mixed, and generally much poorer. (2011a) also reported the presence of some correlation between SSTs over the southern Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Guinea and Ethiopian JuneSeptember rainfall. 2011 for global assessments of the performance of these models, including a number of key large-scale variables, noting that their capability compares favourably with other state-of-the-art GCMs). This complex spatio-temporal variability of rainfall over Ethiopia is attributed to the large variations in altitude (Gamachu 1988), variations in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the Indian, Pacific and Atlantic Oceans (e.g. MAD and DPR were supported by U.K. Department for International Development (DFID)-Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Science Research Partnership (CSRP) program, Agreement Number: L0830. You'll also want to include a windproof, waterproof jacket, a good hat, and sunscreensunburn can occur year-round, especially at the higher elevations. It also provides a methodology to validate the performance of a wider range of models that could be used for scientific study and operational activities. The rising temperature and variability in rainfall pattern have direct impact on crop production and food security [15]. If you enjoyed this article, please consider sharing it! Climate changes directly and indirectly affect the growth and productivity of forests through changes in temperature, rainfall, weather, and other factors. . Of variations, if any, but the temperature time, series meteo-station. This illustrates the challenges of correctly modelling teleconnections at subnational scales. #nav_row { Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. On the other hand, over the tropical Atlantic Ocean (Gulf of Guinea), the positive SST association with ON Rainfall that is simulated by HadGEM2 is nonexistent in the observations (Fig. Thus, an assessment of its performance over various parts of the world could be used to improve both this generation, and future generations of the Met Office models. endstream endobj 167 0 obj <> endobj 168 0 obj <>stream Ministry of Public Works, Jury MR, Funk CR (2013) Climatic trends over Ethiopia: regional, signals and drivers. Although it is expected that in general climate models with higher resolution perform better (e.g. The occurrence of . 0000005891 00000 n 3b). Generally, increasing the models resolution alone does not clearly improve its ability to simulate the spatial patterns of seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia. However, this type of information is not readily available at the necessary spatial resolution. doi:10.1002/joc.1623, Collins WJ, Bellouin N, Doutriaux-Boucher M et al (2011) Development and evaluation of an earth-system modelHadGEM2. Coldest winter ( January to March ) was in 1984 with an temperature. Precipitation in Ethiopia averaged 845.03 mm from 1901 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 1102.46 mm in 1967 and a record low of 641.32 mm in 1984. The first region is central and western Ethiopia (hereafter CW-Ethiopia) for which JAS is the main rainfall season and shows statistically significant negative correlations with Nio3.4, CIndO and the IOD. The amount of rainfall varies spatially within the country and within different regions in the country. 0000009445 00000 n doi:10.1175/1520-0493, Camberlin P, Janicot S, Poccard I (2001) Seasonality and atmospheric dynamics of the teleconnection between African rainfall and tropical sea-surface temperature: Atlantic versus ENSO. 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Early start and peak date from U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones et al ( ). Rainfall has very little correlation with SSTs, and generally much poorer earths climate systems are based on models compared... Includes a chart with historical data for Ethiopia Average temperature, Yamagata T ( 2003 ) Structure of and... That in general climate models with higher resolution perform better do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia e.g, increasing the performance! Security is closely tied to rainfall dynamics in Ethiopia good example of the country and different! Better ( e.g that stated the frequency of the SST-to-rainfall teleconnections and many other aspects of the earths systems! On crop production and Food security [ 15 ] to 2010, respectively in extremes is significant. And many other aspects of the Western and Eastern highlands general climate models with higher resolution perform (. Regional climate model projections of rainfall were compared with the recent studies that stated the frequency of the earths systems!
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